BY ZACH EWING Californian staff writer
Friday, May 11 2012 05:34 PM
It's high school playoff season again, in case you hadn't noticed from this or that or this. But the most high-profile spring sports, baseball and softball, are just finishing up their regular season today. Playoff seedings will be determined in Porterville tomorrow morning for the diamond sports.
So while I still can — because, no matter how many of us agree or disagree, whatever the section commissioners decide tomorrow is gospel — I'd like to give a few predictions on how this might go.
I won't be as in-depth as Nick Papagni of 1430 AM ESPN radio in Fresno, so you might want to see his full predictions here. But I differ from Nick in a few places, and I'm here to lend a Kern County flavor to the process.
DIVISION I BASEBALL
I think it's pretty unanimous that Clovis West and Fresno-Bullard are going to be the top two seeds. They both dominated good leagues, they're both in ESPN Rise's national rankings, and they've got plenty of quality wins. After that, give the nod to SWYL champion Stockdale, which went 12-3 in the second-best league in the section and lost only four other games. The Mustangs lost to Bullard, so No. 3 is probably their ceiling.
This is where it gets really interesting. You could make an argument for any of about four teams for the No. 4 seed — a crucial spot because it comes with a quarterfinal home game. Centennial (16-11, 10-5 SWYL) had defeated Buchanan (18-12, 9-6 TRAC), another of the contenders and had a great argument here until the Golden Hawks were swept by Frontier this week. That makes Centennial 0-4 against the Division II Titans, and I think it means Buchanan's body of work is enough to put the Bears at No. 4. The next team to come into the argument would be Clovis, and I think the Cougars will end up with the No. 5 for two reasons: A win against Centennial and the fact that the committee prefers to limit travel in the early rounds. If you put Clovis fifth and Centennial sixth, you've got Clovis at Buchanan and Centennial at Stockdale. That's my prediction.
Contenders for the No. 7 spot come down to Clovis East and Liberty. Records, both overall and in their respective leagues, are similar. Clovis East probably has a slight strength of schedule advantage, but the Patriots have the ultimate trump card — a road win at Clovis East during the Easter Classic. Pencil Liberty in at No. 7 and Clovis East at No. 8. Follow that up with No. 9 Fresno-Central, No. 10 North (yeah, the Stars are Division I here, unlike every other sport they play) and No. 11 Visalia-El Diamante, and you have yourself a bracket. Bakersfield has already opted out of the playoffs.
DIVISION I SOFTBALL
Defending champion Visalia-El Diamante split the season series with TRAC champion Fresno-Central, but that was the Miners' only loss. That should be enough to get them a No. 1 seed. Slot Central at No. 2. Then it gets tricky. Clovis West, Clovis and Buchanan entered the final day of TRAC play Friday tied for second. Stockdale, which finished 13-2 and won the SWYL, should also be in the conversation, but the Mustangs lost to Clovis West. Should the Golden Eagles win their final game and remain in a tie for second, they've got a good argument for the No. 3 seed. Buchanan, at 21-6-1, should be considered for the No. 4, but I think the commissioners will reward Stockdale here for their SWYL title and give the Mustangs the lat home quarterfinal. That would leave Buchanan No. 5 and Clovis No. 6. CMAC champion Madera is next in line, and then second-place Bullard has a head-to-head edge over Centennial, the second-place team in the SWYL. That'll be a close call; Centennial probably has a better overall resume, but the head-to-head result will be difficult to overcome. The difference? Who hosts the 8-9 game in the first round. Liberty has opted out of the playoffs, so the bracket likely will be filled out by No. 10 Visalia-Golden West and No. 11 Tulare Union.