TheBakersfieldCalifornian.com

Pessimism is all the rage right now. The half-dozen candidates vying for the Republican presidential nomination know that "Things are looking up!" leaves a lot to be desired as a challenger's campaign slogan. So they bounce between negativism and buoyant energy, leavening their scorn with all the campaign-trail charisma they can muster. Ronald Reagan wrote the book on that approach in 1980, and Bill Clinton dusted it off with great effectiveness in 1992.

It's too bad that strategy is a necessary part of the equation because many signs point to a potentially robust 2012, no matter who wins (or retains) the White House. Wall Street has been a mixed bag -- in fact 2011 was pretty much a push. But one of our most telling indicators of consumer confidence has turned in a bullish direction: The real estate market is looking up. The most recent numbers show Americans signing home-purchase contracts at a rate not seen in a year and a half, when a federal program gave homes sales an artificial boost.

An index of pending purchase agreements used by the National Association of Realtors rose to 100.1 in November (100 is considered healthy), up 7.3 percent nationally -- and 14.9 percent in the West -- from October.

Indicators reflecting employers' likely hiring intentions are looking better than they have in two and a half years. Automobile sales seem to have recovered. Unemployment claims are down slightly. Gasoline prices, down 16 percent from their May peak of $4-plus, have eased off. The most recent Consumer Price Index shows inflation leveling off. Everything considered, 2012 has all the makings of a decent year. Sales of optimism futures are way up.

Is a little partisan negativity going to dampen that? Nah. It's politics -- we're used to it. As soon as President Obama has a clear-cut opponent, he'll rachet things up with dire warnings too.

Fortunately, Americans seem fully capable of separating their disdain for politicians with positive expectations for almost everything else. A recent analysis of the national mood confirms it: While last week's Associated Press-GfK poll found most Americans agree 2011 was a lousy year, we overwhelmingly expect 2012 to be better. And the poll numbers indicate that Americans aren't counting on politicians to lead the way there. So, even amid all of the negativism that attends this and most presidential campaigns, Americans feel pretty good about the way things are going.

If you believe, as I do, that optimism can be self-fulfilling, this is encouraging news. Optimism encourages investment, hiring, entrepreneurial spirit. Americans haven't cornered the market on optimism by any means, but it's a big part of our national DNA. And a little bit of optimism can help create a lot more.

How does the party out of power deal with surging optimism? By painting the president a lead weight on that optimism. Give Mitt Romney credit for conjuring up this take: "It's time for this pessimistic president to step aside," he declares in a new TV ad airing in New Hampshire and in Boston, "and let American optimism that built this greatest nation on Earth build a greater future for our children." Yes, the candidate who gave us "Yes we can!" is now portrayed as the incumbent of "No we can't!"

As important as the policy debates will be in the election year to come, the great intangibles of mood and confidence will be equally important factors. American voters have never been big on the details. How did you feel this morning? If you're a member of the vast, undecided middle of the U.S. electorate, that may be the most meaningful Election Day question. I only hope our hereditary American optimism, so important to economic recovery, survives the next 11 months. I'm optimistic it will.

Email Editorial Page Editor Robert Price at rprice@bakersfield.com.